The Carlos Dunlap Contenders Crash
Playoff Contenders Football is a hot commodity in the collecting world each year. Hobby enthusiasts and set builders wait on pins and needles for the short prints to be announced. 2010 Contenders was no different in terms of hype and hoopla. As in past years, bloggers and collectors nationwide gave cracking the latest Contenders code their best shot.
Most speculators used eBay as the source for their information. If a card had sold 100 copies in the first week and there were another 100 available online, chances were good it wasn't a short-print. But some cards, like the now infamous Carlos Dunlap Rookie Ticket auto, had fewer than 10 completed sales on eBay and never more than one or two copies on the auction block at a time prior to Panini's introduction of a debatable "x-factor".
This made the Carlos Dunlap card a unanimous “Short Print" selection by bloggers and collectors alike.
Then Panini threw a gigantic wrench into the fabric of the Contenders formula. A few days after Beckett published pricing for 2010 Contenders based on their “suspected" short-prints, collectors started noticing that retail shops like Target and Walmart were now selling blaster boxes of 2010 Contenders for $29.99. That might not sound too strange, but within a day forums everywhere were abuzz with collectors pulling “super-short-prints" from every other retail blaster. Collectors grew suspicious, but lack of awareness allowed the Carlos Dunlap cards to maintain an inflated price for a couple more days.
Then on March 4th, Panini announced Rookie Ticket print-runs. Carlos Dunlap was not even on the list. Prices for Carlos Dunlap cards plummeted as quickly as Charlie Sheen's career.
Below is a timeline of events leading up to the great Carlos Dunlap card crash. Some collectors say Panini was deceptive and harmed collectors by not announcing that a retail product would come out weeks after the hobby product was released. Other would say it's the price paid for jumping prior to knowing all the facts. What do you think?
- February 20th, 2011 - Sold for $169.50
- February 21st, 2011 - Sold for $163
- February 21st, 2011 - Beckett lists their "Unconfirmed short-prints" list and name Carlos Dunlap as having a "Scarce, Extremely low print run."
- February 27th, 2011 - Sold for $166
- March 1st, 2011 - Sold for $174.99
- March 2nd, 2011 - Beckett Publishes first pricing for 2010 Contenders and lists Carlos Dunlap as having a Book Value of $175.
- March 3rd, 2011 - Sold for $129.99
- March 4th, 2011 - Sold for $100
- March 4th, 2011 - Panini Announces Print-Runs of "Short-Prints"...Carlos Dunlap is not on the list. Collectors across the country let out a collective "WTF?"--
- March 5th, 2011 - Sold for $35
- March 6th, 2011 - Sold for $35
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Kenny | Mar 10, 2011 | Reply
I read this article and then went to look at the list of # of prints to find out my Blair White rookie auto is the LOWEST one out of them all! HELL YEA
Ben Barron | Mar 10, 2011 | Reply
Very interesting article Sergio. This just goes to show how much of a gamble collecting and prospecting really is at times. I hate it when something like this happens because it seems that I always pull what I think is going to be a nice rare or SP’d card only to find out later that they produced a ton of them lol. Anyway I’m just glad that I pulled some big name autos from contenders this year and sold them while they were hot. Contenders is a great product and I hope they don’t monkey around with it too much and turn it into a bad one.
Jeff | Mar 11, 2011 | Reply
I was upset that I missed out on a Dunlap cheap the day the projected list came out on here. I continued to bid on other Dunlap cards but lost, here’s to losing! I did however end up with other contenders auto’s that did make the list, I’ll drink to that!
Sergio | Mar 11, 2011 | Reply
Re: Kenny
Congrats on the Blair White!!!
Sergio | Mar 11, 2011 | Reply
Re: Ben Barron
Thanks for the kind words, Ben. I also really enjoyed Contenders this year, although I didn’t have any luck pulling big name autos. Thanks for the post!
Scott Spehn | Mar 11, 2011 | Reply
Great article Sergio!! I bought the first one, so I came out on the short end of this deal. I am putting the rookie ticket set together but was very disappointed in the print runs across the board! That will really hurt the value of this set compared to the last 2 years!!
Sergio | Mar 11, 2011 | Reply
Re: Scott Spehn
I agree completely regarding the print runs, but I still think putting the complete set together is a massive task!
Josh | Mar 13, 2011 | Reply
Thats the price you pay for jumping the gun. I pulled 2 Tebow autos from one box about 2 days after releases. I held them for a week before selling and the selling price went from 220 on the white shirt to 130.. Now I am seeing the white shirt ones go for 105-110.. I just cant believe people would spend that much for a card we were not even sure was a SP.. There will always be one or two of the super short prints for sale so no need to jump the gun and overpay for something that isnt even confirmed.. Contenders is a great set and this year the beautiful on card autos really set it off. One short print to watch is Rusty Smith Titans i dont think he is the starter next year but if he ever makes it big that card will be worth a fortune.. Im still saving pennies right now to get an Eric Berry for my personal collection. They just had to short print my guy turning a 20 dollaar atuo into a $100+ card Thanks Panini!!
And heres a good LOL for all the guys sitting on Dunlops that paid 100+ for them
Josh | Mar 13, 2011 | Reply
and what i am most shocked is checking ebay in the last week two have sold for over 20 dollars?? I just dont get that didnt people get the news not like the guy is going to be a Hall of Famer one day he will be lucky to play 3 years.. Some people just dont learn it seems.. One seller is asking $120 BIN OBO haha thought about offering him $3…
Kenny | Mar 24, 2011 | Reply
blair white – $202.50