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The Rays of Hope—A Post ALCS Market Analysis

Congratulations to the Tampa Bay Rays for achieving MLB history by becoming the first team to make it to the Fall Classic after finishing with the worst record in baseball in 2007.  Muddled in obscurity for much of the franchise's brief history, the Rays have never been a hot market for household names.  The 2008 season has proven to be a different story.  Led by super rookie Evan Longoria, this franchise has re-invented itself as a new throng of players have found their ways to the spotlight of the collecting world.

Much like my article about the Phantastic Phillies, I will focus on a few, six to be exact, key performers from the Rays roster, highlighting the effects that their performances have had on some of their more popular 1st year cards.  The Ebay prices were determined over a two week period (Oct 7th-Oct 21) and are represented with shipping costs included.  Difficult as it be, I have done my best to remove outliers from the price estimates.


1.) Matt Garza---2005 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto

Oct 7:   $10.00-12.50

Oct 14: $28.00-32.00

Garza was named ALCS MVP after his dominant two win performance where he allowed just two runs in 13 IP while striking out 15.  Garza was the 3rd starter in the rotation and, ironically, was widely considered the weak link.  Matt's card prices jumped considerably after his dominating Game 7 win and, at an approximate 250% increase, his cards have proven to be great investments for short term speculators.  Garza can continue his hot streak against the Phillies, though he will likely be pitching in Citizen's Bank Ballpark which could be trouble if he struggles to control his 96 MPH heat.  Buyers beware!

Great Deals on Baseball Cards - Rookie Cards, Autographed Cards, Prospect Cards and Much More
06 bowman chrome Matt Garza auto autograph
06 bowman chrome Matt Garza auto autograph
   US $7.99
MATT GARZA 06 BOWMAN CHROME GOLD REFRACTOR AUTO 50
MATT GARZA 06 BOWMAN CHROME GOLD REFRACTOR AUTO 50
   US $6.29
2006 Bowman Chrome MATT GARZA RC XFRACTOR AUTO 225
2006 Bowman Chrome MATT GARZA RC XFRACTOR AUTO 225
   US $7.76
2008 Triple Threads Matt Garza GU auto 68 75
2008 Triple Threads Matt Garza GU auto 68 75
   US $9.99
06 BOWMAN CHROME AUTO REFRACTOR MATT GARZA 500
06 BOWMAN CHROME AUTO REFRACTOR MATT GARZA 500
   US $25.00
05 TOPPS CHROME UPDATE REFRACTOR AUTO MATT GARZA RC 500
05 TOPPS CHROME UPDATE REFRACTOR AUTO MATT GARZA RC 500
   US $35.00
MATT GARZA auto autograph By The Letter Signature RAYS
MATT GARZA auto autograph By The Letter Signature RAYS
   US $.99
2006 JUST MINORS MATT GARZA AUTO ROOKIE
2006 JUST MINORS MATT GARZA AUTO ROOKIE
   US $24.95
2008 SP Authentic Matt Garza Auto By The Letter 2 25
2008 SP Authentic Matt Garza Auto By The Letter 2 25
   US $79.99
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2.) B.J. Upton---2002 UD Prospect Premieres Auto

Oct. 7:   $22.50-25.00

Oct. 14: $45.00-50.00

From the penthouse to the doghouse back to the penthouse again.  Upton has never completely fulfilled his abundance of promise that prompted the Rays to select him with the first pick of the 2002 draft.  This season, Upton suffered a torn labrum that sapped his power for much of the season (though his 44 SB were more than enough to please fantasy baseball owners).  Making matters worse, he was criticized often for failing to submit a full effort in his everyday play .  The postseason has been a different story, though, as Upton has belted 7 HR and 15 RBI as the Rays' offensive catalyst.  As collectors get a glimpse at the magnitude of Upton's colossal upside, his sole 2002 autograph continues to be the most requested card of Upton's.  Over the past two weeks, this card has doubled in price on Ebay.  With a double digit HR playoff performance a distince possibility, this card may not be done rising.

Great Deals on Baseball Cards - Rookie Cards, Autographed Cards, Prospect Cards and Much More
2002 UD PROSPECT PREMIERES BJ BJ UPTON RC AUTO PSA 10
2002 UD PROSPECT PREMIERES BJ BJ UPTON RC AUTO PSA 10
   US $150.00
2005 Fleer Patchworks Carl Crawford BJ Upton Dual Auto
2005 Fleer Patchworks Carl Crawford BJ Upton Dual Auto
   US $.99
BJ UPTON SIGNED AUTOGRAPHED AUTO BASEBALL BAT RAYS
BJ UPTON SIGNED AUTOGRAPHED AUTO BASEBALL BAT RAYS
   US $31.00
2002 Upper Deck Prospect Premieres BJ Upton Auto RC
2002 Upper Deck Prospect Premieres BJ Upton Auto RC
   US $17.07
BJ UPTON 2005 ULTIMATE SIGNATURE DECADES AUTO CARD
BJ UPTON 2005 ULTIMATE SIGNATURE DECADES AUTO CARD
   US $.99
2006 Bowman Originals BJ Upton Auto 16 24
2006 Bowman Originals BJ Upton Auto 16 24
   US $49.99
2002 UD Prospect Premieres BJ Upton AUTO BGS 95 Rookie
2002 UD Prospect Premieres BJ Upton AUTO BGS 95 Rookie
   US $99.99
BJ Upton Signed Auto Baseball Rays HoloCOA Personalized
BJ Upton Signed Auto Baseball Rays HoloCOA Personalized
   US $24.99
2002 UD Prospect BJ BJ UPTON AUTO RC BGS 95 10
2002 UD Prospect BJ BJ UPTON AUTO RC BGS 95 10
   US $89.98
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3.) Evan Longoria---2006 Bowman Chrome Draft Auto

Oct. 7:   $125.00-140.00

Oct. 14: $175.00-200.00


Few would disagree that 23 year old baseball prodigy Evan Longoria is the face of the Tampa Bay Rays.  He has been touted that since being selected with the 3rd pick of the '06 draft.  Longoria has belted a rookie record 6 HR in this postseason and has dazzled many with incredible Brooks Robinson-like defense at the hot corner (never mind the tumultous game 5 throwing error).  Longoria has a litany of autographed cards on the market right now, though it is his 2006 autographed cards that garner top dollar.  Both his Bowman Chrome Draft and Bowman Sterling Autos have achieved 45-50% profit yields in the last 14 days. I find this a remarkable feat considering Longoria's already copious market exposure.  How much larger can Longoria's hype grow?  I submit that his values are close to an apex, as many 2007 and 2008 autographed versions are becoming increasingly popular.

Great Deals on Baseball Cards - Rookie Cards, Autographed Cards, Prospect Cards and Much More
2008 BOWMAN STERLING GOLD REF AUTO RC EVAN LONGORIA 50
2008 BOWMAN STERLING GOLD REF AUTO RC EVAN LONGORIA 50
   US $55.00
2 EVAN LONGORIA 2008 UPPER DECK UD X 94 LOT RC RAYS
2 EVAN LONGORIA 2008 UPPER DECK UD X 94 LOT RC RAYS
   US $.99
25 2008 Bowman Draft CHROME rc EVAN LONGORIA
25 2008 Bowman Draft CHROME rc EVAN LONGORIA
   US $23.51
2008 UD TIMELINES EVAN LONGORIA 5 CARD RC LOT
2008 UD TIMELINES EVAN LONGORIA 5 CARD RC LOT
   US $19.99
2008 Evan Longoria Bgs 9 Sp Authentic Auto Rc 13 350
2008 Evan Longoria Bgs 9 Sp Authentic Auto Rc 13 350
   US $76.00
2008 Bowman Sterling Evan Longoria Refractor Auto RC
2008 Bowman Sterling Evan Longoria Refractor Auto RC
   US $38.00
2008 BOWMAN STERLING EVAN LONGORIA RC AUTO REF 187 199
2008 BOWMAN STERLING EVAN LONGORIA RC AUTO REF 187 199
   US $33.88
2008 BOWMAN CHROME RAYS EVAN LONGORIA REFRACTOR RC
2008 BOWMAN CHROME RAYS EVAN LONGORIA REFRACTOR RC
   US $3.01
EVAN LONGORIA 2008 SP AUTHENTIC AUTO JERSEY RC 499
EVAN LONGORIA 2008 SP AUTHENTIC AUTO JERSEY RC 499
   US $71.00
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4.) David Price---2007 Bowman Chrome Draft

Oct. 7:   $1.50-2.00

Oct 14:  $4.00-5.00

Two innings.  That is the sum of David Price's ALCS contributions.  However, in those two innings, the baseball world gawked at the explosion of talent unleashed from the left arm of the Rays future ace.  Hey David--- J.D. Drew, Mark Kotsay, and Jason Varitek called--they want their dignity back.  Price mowed through Boston's hitters to earn the win in Game 4 and then hurled a hitless 1.1 innings to nab the series-clinching save in Game 7.  Price dials up a 97 MPH fastball that kills lefties due to his 3/4 arm slot.  His slider is reminiscent of Randy Johnson's "Mr. Snappy", and at 87 MPH...it's just unfair.  Price's '07 Bowman Chrome Draft cards have more than doubled in value and his Bowman Sterling and Donruss Elite autographs are up about 60%.  Pitchers are fickle creatures and they can break a prospector's heart in a hurry.  All worries aside, Price is amazing to watch and one could only hope that he might take the mound in the first inning of a World Series game instead of the last.

Great Deals on Baseball Cards - Rookie Cards, Autographed Cards, Prospect Cards and Much More
2007 BOWMAN DRAFT BDPP55 DAVID PRICE
2007 BOWMAN DRAFT BDPP55 DAVID PRICE
   US $1.04
2007 BOWMAN DRAFT BDPP55 DAVID PRICE GOLD
2007 BOWMAN DRAFT BDPP55 DAVID PRICE GOLD
   US $2.25
BGS 95 2007 08 JUST BLACK DAVID PRICE SP RC AUTO 25
BGS 95 2007 08 JUST BLACK DAVID PRICE SP RC AUTO 25
   US $94.50
08 Bowman Chrome David Price Evan Longoria HOC Auto 350
08 Bowman Chrome David Price Evan Longoria HOC Auto 350
   US $78.51
DAVID PRICE 2007 Donruss Elite MGS 10 Rookie Card GEM
DAVID PRICE 2007 Donruss Elite MGS 10 Rookie Card GEM
   US $19.95
DAVID PRICE 2005 Upper Deck USA MGS 10 Rookie Card GEM
DAVID PRICE 2005 Upper Deck USA MGS 10 Rookie Card GEM
   US $9.95
DAVID PRICE 2007 BOWMAN STERLING AUTO ROOKIE MINT RC
DAVID PRICE 2007 BOWMAN STERLING AUTO ROOKIE MINT RC
   US $46.05
King David New DVD LOW PRICE
King David New DVD LOW PRICE
   US $5.60
David Leadbetter Faults Fixes with Nick Price New DVD
David Leadbetter Faults Fixes with Nick Price New DVD
   US $11.25
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5.) Carlos Pena---1999 Topps Traded Auto

Oct 7:   $12.00-14.00

Oct 14: $17.00-20.00

Pena's cards dipped over this season due to his struggles to replicate last year's "where the heck did that come from" 48 HR season.  I can say with some amount of pride, that I predicted Pena's postseason hot streak.  Pena saved his best performances, thusfar, for the mighty Red Sox as he hit HR's in three consecutive games.  There is not much demand for his other 1999 offerings, but his Topps Traded Autographs experienced a solid 42% increase in the last two weeks.  Hitting .333 for the postseason, Pena could easily pop out another 3-4 HR in this series against the Phillies, though I don't expect any of them to be against Cole Hamels on Wednesday night.

Great Deals on Baseball Cards - Rookie Cards, Autographed Cards, Prospect Cards and Much More
03 Donruss Champions Metalized CARLOS PENA 96 100 99
03 Donruss Champions Metalized CARLOS PENA 96 100 99
   US $.49
2001 Leaf Limited CARLOS PENA 761 1500 228
2001 Leaf Limited CARLOS PENA 761 1500 228
   US $.49
2001 Donruss 1999 Retro Carlos Pena Rookie 88
2001 Donruss 1999 Retro Carlos Pena Rookie 88
   US $.99
2008 Moments Milestones Carlos Pena Black d 25
2008 Moments Milestones Carlos Pena Black d 25
   US $.99
11 2008 Bowman Chrome CARLOS PENA Refractors
11 2008 Bowman Chrome CARLOS PENA Refractors
   US $.99
2008 Bowman Gold 179 Carlos Pena
2008 Bowman Gold 179 Carlos Pena
   US $.75
Carlos Pena Tampa Bay Rays Chrome RC lot of 2
Carlos Pena Tampa Bay Rays Chrome RC lot of 2
   US $.99
2001 Donruss Elite Carlos Pena Rookie 1000 Rangers
2001 Donruss Elite Carlos Pena Rookie 1000 Rangers
   US $.99
2002 CARLOS PENA Just Prospects RC card GEM 10 RAYS
2002 CARLOS PENA Just Prospects RC card GEM 10 RAYS
   US $12.99
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6.) Scott Kazmir---2004 Bowman Sterling Jersey Auto


Oct 7:   $11.00-13.00

Oct 14: $16.00-20.00

Kazmir has had an up and down postseason so far, though his Game 5 no-decision showed why he is one of baseball's best young pitchers.  Kazmir shut down the Sox for 6 innings allowing just 2 hits and striking out 7.  Of course, we all remember what happened in the following 3 innings after Kazmir departed with a 7-0 advantage.  This start seems to have ignited the Ebay market though, prompting a nearly 50% increase in this card.  Kazmir has many different 2004 offerings, some autographed and some not, though it is the Sterling cards that seem to be traded most heavily.  Kazmir will start Game 2 in Tampa Bay.  Let's hope, for his sake (and the Rays) that his roller coaster ride stays at its peak a little while longer.

Great Deals on Baseball Cards - Rookie Cards, Autographed Cards, Prospect Cards and Much More
2004 SPX Scott Kazmir rookie jersey auto 321 799
2004 SPX Scott Kazmir rookie jersey auto 321 799
   US $9.99
2006 Flair Showcase Scott Kazmir SP 151
2006 Flair Showcase Scott Kazmir SP 151
   US $.10
2008 Milestones Printing Plate 1 1 Scott Kazmir Rays
2008 Milestones Printing Plate 1 1 Scott Kazmir Rays
   US $9.99
2007 TOPPS SCOTT KAZMIR HIGHLIGHTS GAME USED JERSEY
2007 TOPPS SCOTT KAZMIR HIGHLIGHTS GAME USED JERSEY
   US $.99
2005 UD Tampa Bay SCOTT KAZMIR ROOKIE AUTOGRAPH
2005 UD Tampa Bay SCOTT KAZMIR ROOKIE AUTOGRAPH
   US $7.99
9 2008 Bowman Chrome SCOTT KAZMIR Refractors
9 2008 Bowman Chrome SCOTT KAZMIR Refractors
   US $.99
2008 Topps Scott Kazmir Silk Card 18 50
2008 Topps Scott Kazmir Silk Card 18 50
   US $3.11
MCFARLANE MLB 19 SCOTT KAZMIR TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS
MCFARLANE MLB 19 SCOTT KAZMIR TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS
   US $6.95
2007 U D CLEAR CUT SCOTT KAZMIR GU AUTO D TO 99 RAYS
2007 U D CLEAR CUT SCOTT KAZMIR GU AUTO D TO 99 RAYS
   US $24.99
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It is hard not to get excited about the Tampa Bay Rays.  This team was intelligently designed to feature a comprehensive blend of abilities that mesh well under the tutelage of dynamic manager Joe Maddon.  My hope for this next series is to see some of the other primary players like Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, and James Shields distinguish themselves a bit more.  On the same token, lesser known players like Jason Bartlett, Akinori Iwamura, Ben Zobrist, Cliff Floyd, Dioner Navarro, and Andy Sonnestine may also draw significant interest from collectors in the event they come up big against the Phillies.

I hope you enjoyed the look into both the Phillies and Rays!  Feel free to leave your comments and questions at anytime on this or my own blog Porter's Prospect Report.  Enjoy the series and happy prospecting!



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